The aim of this project is to discover how a specific population collapsed, leading us to some intuitions useful for generalization.
My model is programmed with NetLogo software and follows the pre-built model by J. Epstein and R. Axtell. What I have done, specifically, consists of an extension that solves the biggest doubt left by previous modelers: why does the population disappear (despite environmental conditions not dictating it)?
We are speaking of one of the most fascinating and mysterious ancient cultures in North America: the Anasazi people.
They were highly skilled and innovative people who created a unique and thriving civilization in the arid desert regions of the southwestern United States. From XII century BC to XIII century AD, the Anasazi people flourished in the area known as the Four Corners of today’s United States, eventually settling in the Long House Valley.
Then, suddenly and mysteriously, they vanished. However, there are some clues that can help us piece together this puzzle.
The authors of the main model themselves note that: «environmental conditions may not have been sufficient to drive out the entire population suggests that additional push or pull factors impelled the complete abandonment of the valley after 1300. […] In addition, the depressed population may simply have been insufficient to maintain cultural institutions, precipitating a collective decision to leave the valley.»
With the right tools (Network Science and Agent-Based Modeling), we can reconstruct the phenomenon of this “collective decision” and understand how the Anasazi Puebloan collapsed.
To be published.